Was Rabat's Decision Justified?

As everyone is scratching his head over Rabat's decision to severe diplomatic ties with the Islamic Republic of Iran, Moroccan officials rushed to present their arguments behind what is viewed as mindboggling and unpopular decision both in Morocco and the Middle East.

Because of Iran's rising popularity in the Arab and Islamic world for its support to Hamas and Hizballah against Israel, any hostile gesture from a Muslim country towards it would be unpopular and unacceptable; and so was Morocco when it decided to cut ties.

What is more surprising and suspicious to many people is that the arguments being used by the Moroccan diplomacy are too weak at worst and contradictory at best. While Mr. Fassi Fihri, the Moroccan FM, said the decision was prompted by Iran's singling out of Morocco regarding the Bahrain comments, spokesman of the Moroccan government, Mr Nasiri, claimed Iran has been engaging in a campaign to spread Shi'ism among Moroccans in Europe and inside the kingdom itself.

These dissonant official statements not only reveal the weakness of Rabat's arguments, but also reveal the defensive posture of the Moroccan diplomacy after realizing it was indeed an unpopular decision both domestically and regionally.

While the Bahrain story does not hold much ground in justifying the decision, there are other possible explanations that make more sense, though they are not disclosed officially, for obvious reasons.

Morocco maintains good relations with two U.S. allies in the Middle East, namely, Israel and Saudi Arabia, which also happened to be sworn enemies of Iran for ideological and political reasons. Those two nations are more likely to be behind the Moroccan-Iranian diplomatic crisis than any other factor.

Morocco has always maintained good, though covert, relations with Israel. There is a large Moroccan-Jewish community in Israel and the kingdom had intervened several times in the past to mediate peace talks between Israel and its Arab neighbors. Israel, in return, directed its strong pro-Israel lobby in the United States to defend Morocco's position in its conflict with the Algeria-backed Polisario.

Now, Israel needed another favor from Morocco: Let's help curb the Iranian influence in the region, keep Iran on the defensive diplomatically, and weaken its bargaining power regarding its nuclear program. The Iranian-Moroccan diplomatic row will certainly create some distraction for Iran diplomacy in the hope that other Arab nations would follow suit.

Saudi Arabia, Iran's Sunni enemy and the closest Arab ally to Morocco, leads a strong oil lobby in the U.S. and pours money into the Moroccan treasury whenever economic difficulties or military needs arise in the kingdom. Worth mentioning is the fact that the Saudi kingdom has experienced in the past few weeks a serious domestic problem. Saudi Shias have rioted in the holy city of Madina, as some Saudi observers and politicians alleged they acted upon instructions from the mullahs of Iran. Saudi leaders have more than a reason to urge their "Moroccan friends" to severe ties with Iran and send a clear message to the Islamic republic.

Emotions aside, while the Moroccan decision can be unpopular and might cause a dent on its image domestically and in the Middle East in the short term, it might understandably be a practical, strategic move that serve Morocco's long-term interests with its allies both in the region and on the other side of the Atlantic.